Friday cocktail: Big ideas, grieving elephants and a heartfelt memory
Sip: on a McKinley’s Delight
Weekend browsing:
Why the world’s biggest ideas are still waiting to be discovered
A grandmother’s love: this charming Korean animation turns a pregnant daughter’s craving for Chamoe melon into something deeper
Asia’s sad giants: video evidence reveals how India’s elephants mourn their dead
Listen: to Morgan Wallen singing Don’t Think Jesus, a modern country ballad about the shock of grace in our stone-throwing culture.
“‘Find someone else to give Heaven to.’ I'm telling you
I'd shame me, I’d blame me
I'd make me pay for my mistakes.
But I don't think Jesus does it that way.”
Have a great weekend.
Sip: on a McKinley’s Delight
Weekend browsing:
Why the world’s biggest ideas are still waiting to be discovered
A grandmother’s love: this charming Korean animation turns a pregnant daughter’s craving for Chamoe melon into something deeper
Asia’s sad giants: video evidence reveals how India’s elephants mourn their dead
Listen: to Morgan Wallen singing Don’t Think Jesus, a modern country ballad about the shock of grace in our stone-throwing culture.
“‘Find someone else to give Heaven to.’ I'm telling you
I'd shame me, I’d blame me
I'd make me pay for my mistakes.
But I don't think Jesus does it that way.”
Have a great weekend.
The West is stronger than you think – and so is the liberal alliance that saved it
My recent speech at the New Culture Forum’s conference makes the case for the enduring value of the Western tradition.
I also have a review out for The Critic of Yoram Hazony’s new book Conservatism: A Rediscovery. It’s extraordinarily ambitious, but… not very practical. It seeks to repudiate the alliance of conservatives and disaffected liberals which won the Cold War just when we might need them to make common cause once again.
My recent speech at the New Culture Forum’s conference makes the case for the enduring value of the Western tradition.
I also have a review out for The Critic of Yoram Hazony’s new book Conservatism: A Rediscovery. It’s extraordinarily ambitious, but… not very practical. It seeks to repudiate the alliance of conservatives and disaffected liberals which won the Cold War just when we might need them to make common cause once again.
Hey, Siri, is it really game over for human intelligence?
A leading researcher at Google’s DeepMind claimed on Twitter that the AI game is effectively over. Creating Artificial General Intelligence – machines that can match or exceed human intelligence – is now just a matter of building bigger.
This follows yet another impressive DeepMind demo, this time of their new Gato system, which can do everything from stacking blocks and playing Atari games to captioning pictures and chatting with a human user.
Not everyone agrees that SkyNet is just around the corner:
“What DeepMind, OpenAI, and similar labs are doing is very important. It’s science at the cutting-edge.
“But to declare the game is over? To insinuate that AGI will arise from a system whose distinguishing contribution is how it serves models? Gato is amazing, but that feels like a stretch.“
Even without an AGI breakthrough, AI systems are getting very good.
A leading researcher at Google’s DeepMind claimed on Twitter that the AI game is effectively over. Creating Artificial General Intelligence – machines that can match or exceed human intelligence – is now just a matter of building bigger.
This follows yet another impressive DeepMind demo, this time of their new Gato system, which can do everything from stacking blocks and playing Atari games to captioning pictures and chatting with a human user.
Not everyone agrees that SkyNet is just around the corner:
“What DeepMind, OpenAI, and similar labs are doing is very important. It’s science at the cutting-edge.
“But to declare the game is over? To insinuate that AGI will arise from a system whose distinguishing contribution is how it serves models? Gato is amazing, but that feels like a stretch.“
Even without an AGI breakthrough, AI systems are getting very good.
As markets turn south, woke capitalism loses its shine
Matthew Lynn at the Telegraph analyses the sudden and welcome shift of the world’s biggest fund managers, who are suddenly walking back their recent political tilt.
“BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has just announced that it won’t expect the companies it invests in to meet so many environmental goals. Sweden’s SEB said recently it would lift its blanket ban on defence companies. And Barclays has said – shock horror – that it is willing to back oil and gas exploration once again. One by one, major asset managers are revisiting their fashionable pursuit of ESG…“
BlackRock holds staggering sway in the financial world, with a significant shareholding in most of the world’s major businesses, so its change of direction really matters. As Lynn says:
“Beyond a few simple rules such as refusing to invest in companies that break the law, or allow corruption, the asset managers should drop the politics. It is not their area of expertise, and they are not very good at it. They are making mistake after mistake. Instead, they should get back to simply investing in firms that make a decent product, at a fair price, pay their staff and suppliers on time, and earn a good return for their shareholders.“
Matthew Lynn at the Telegraph analyses the sudden and welcome shift of the world’s biggest fund managers, who are suddenly walking back their recent political tilt.
“BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has just announced that it won’t expect the companies it invests in to meet so many environmental goals. Sweden’s SEB said recently it would lift its blanket ban on defence companies. And Barclays has said – shock horror – that it is willing to back oil and gas exploration once again. One by one, major asset managers are revisiting their fashionable pursuit of ESG…“
BlackRock holds staggering sway in the financial world, with a significant shareholding in most of the world’s major businesses, so its change of direction really matters. As Lynn says:
“Beyond a few simple rules such as refusing to invest in companies that break the law, or allow corruption, the asset managers should drop the politics. It is not their area of expertise, and they are not very good at it. They are making mistake after mistake. Instead, they should get back to simply investing in firms that make a decent product, at a fair price, pay their staff and suppliers on time, and earn a good return for their shareholders.“
Most people don’t even know the name of the body’s biggest sense organ…
Anatomists used to discard it to get at the muscles beneath. Now some researchers are finding there’s far more to the fascia than meets the eye.
A new piece in New Scientist (gated) looks at the fibrous connective tissue that wraps around your muscles like a wetsuit under the skin. New research by Robert Schleip has found the unpromising-looking fascia is far from inert: it contains 250m nerve endings, slightly more than your skin, which has been considered the body’s largest sense organ.
Other research implicates the fascia in today’s epidemic of chronic back pain – and suggests stretching is important because it encourages the fascia to release anti-inflammatory chemicals.
Anatomists used to discard it to get at the muscles beneath. Now some researchers are finding there’s far more to the fascia than meets the eye.
A new piece in New Scientist (gated) looks at the fibrous connective tissue that wraps around your muscles like a wetsuit under the skin. New research by Robert Schleip has found the unpromising-looking fascia is far from inert: it contains 250m nerve endings, slightly more than your skin, which has been considered the body’s largest sense organ.
Other research implicates the fascia in today’s epidemic of chronic back pain – and suggests stretching is important because it encourages the fascia to release anti-inflammatory chemicals.
Friday Cocktail: virtual pots, mechanical watches and stupid rules. Plus gin.
Sip: on a Gin Sonic (soda + tonic)
Weekend browsing:
How does a mechanical watch work? – amazing interactive animations! The author has a whole series of fascinating explanatory essays
Idle hands: Google’s virtual pottery studio
Listen: to Detectorists performed by Johnny Flynn (in honour of the new feature-length special due later this year)
“I knew the call of all the song birds
They sang all the wrong words
I'm waiting for you”
Have a great weekend.
Sip: on a Gin Sonic (soda + tonic)
Weekend browsing:
How does a mechanical watch work? – amazing interactive animations! The author has a whole series of fascinating explanatory essays
Idle hands: Google’s virtual pottery studio
Listen: to Detectorists performed by Johnny Flynn (in honour of the new feature-length special due later this year)
“I knew the call of all the song birds
They sang all the wrong words
I'm waiting for you…”
Have a great weekend.
Unexpected treasure: Detectorists: The (TV) Movie will be released this autumn
Time to do the gold dance. One of the best TV series of the 21st century is returning this autumn for a feature-length special.
The show is the brainchild of Mackenzie Crook, who says:
“It was 2017 when we were last in Danebury and I miss my old friends in the DMDC [Danebury Metal Detecting Club]. I've had a story percolating for a while and I thought it was worth getting Lance, Andy and the rest of the band back together for. The affection expressed for Detectorists over the years has been incredible and I hope fans of the show will enjoy this new, extended episode.”
It’s a quiet, unassuming and wonderful show. I can’t wait.
Time to do the gold dance. One of the best TV series of the 21st century is returning this autumn for a feature-length special.
The show is the brainchild of Mackenzie Crook, who says:
“It was 2017 when we were last in Danebury and I miss my old friends in the DMDC [Danebury Metal Detecting Club]. I've had a story percolating for a while and I thought it was worth getting Lance, Andy and the rest of the band back together for. The affection expressed for Detectorists over the years has been incredible and I hope fans of the show will enjoy this new, extended episode.”
It’s a quiet, unassuming and wonderful show. I can’t wait.
A poem about swifts in flight is the perfect antidote to your smartphone’s frenzy
Swifts
The swifts winnow the air.
It is pleasant at the end of the day
To watch them. I have shut the mind
On fools. The ‘phone’s frenzy
Is over. There is only the swifts’
Restlessness in the sky
And their shrill squealing.
Sometimes they glide,
Or rip the silk of the wind
In passing. Unseen ribbons
Are trailing upon the air.
There is no solving the problem
They pose, that had millions of years
Behind it, when the first thinker
Looked at them.
Sometimes they meet
In the high air: what is engendered
At contact? I am learning to bring
Only my wonder to the contemplation
Of the geometry of their dark wings.
–by the great RS Thomas
Swifts
The swifts winnow the air.
It is pleasant at the end of the day
To watch them. I have shut the mind
On fools. The ‘phone’s frenzy
Is over. There is only the swifts’
Restlessness in the sky
And their shrill squealing.
Sometimes they glide,
Or rip the silk of the wind
In passing. Unseen ribbons
Are trailing upon the air.
There is no solving the problem
They pose, that had millions of years
Behind it, when the first thinker
Looked at them.
Sometimes they meet
In the high air: what is engendered
At contact? I am learning to bring
Only my wonder to the contemplation
Of the geometry of their dark wings.
–by the great RS Thomas
Is it really an “experiment” if the government forces everyone to do the same thing?
Sri Lanka banned modern agriculture… with predictable effects, outlined in a Foreign Policy piece.
“Against claims that organic methods can produce comparable yields to conventional farming, domestic rice production fell 20 percent in just the first six months. Sri Lanka, long self-sufficient in rice production, has been forced to import $450 million worth of rice even as domestic prices for this staple of the national diet surged by around 50 percent. The ban also devastated the nation’s tea crop, its primary export and source of foreign exchange.”
Devastating. And terrifying that an entire country was forced down this road to nowhere.
“The farrago of magical thinking, technocratic hubris, ideological delusion, self-dealing, and sheer shortsightedness that produced the crisis in Sri Lanka implicates both the country’s political leadership and advocates of so-called sustainable agriculture: the former for seizing on the organic agriculture pledge as a shortsighted measure to slash fertilizer subsidies and imports and the latter for suggesting that such a transformation of the nation’s agricultural sector could ever possibly succeed.“
Sri Lanka banned modern agriculture… with predictable effects, as outlined in a Foreign Policy piece.
“Against claims that organic methods can produce comparable yields to conventional farming, domestic rice production fell 20 percent in just the first six months. Sri Lanka, long self-sufficient in rice production, has been forced to import $450 million worth of rice even as domestic prices for this staple of the national diet surged by around 50 percent. The ban also devastated the nation’s tea crop, its primary export and source of foreign exchange.”
Devastating. And terrifying that an entire country was forced down this road to nowhere.
“The farrago of magical thinking, technocratic hubris, ideological delusion, self-dealing, and sheer shortsightedness that produced the crisis in Sri Lanka implicates both the country’s political leadership and advocates of so-called sustainable agriculture: the former for seizing on the organic agriculture pledge as a shortsighted measure to slash fertilizer subsidies and imports and the latter for suggesting that such a transformation of the nation’s agricultural sector could ever possibly succeed.”
Heavy news: a new physics could be just over the horizon
One of the scientists who discovered the Higgs boson says that their team has found a flaw in our current best framework for the basic laws of the universe, the Standard Model of particle physics. It turns out the W boson is heavier than predicted.
“When the physics world finally saw the result on April 7, 2022, we were all surprised. Physicists measure elementary particle masses in units of millions of electron volts – shortened to MeV. The W boson’s mass came out to be 80,433 MeV – 70 MeV higher than what the Standard Model predicts it should be. This may seem like a tiny excess, but the measurement is accurate to within 9 MeV. This is a deviation of nearly eight times the margin of error. When my colleagues and I saw the result, our reaction was a resounding ‘wow!’”
The Standard Model has an astonishing track record: it predicted the existence of the W boson and Higgs boson before they were experimentally verified. But unless there’s a flaw in the analysis, we will need to update our model of the universe. In the author’s view: “There are unexplained particles or forces causing the upward shift in the W boson’s mass. […] there must be more physics waiting to be discovered beyond the Standard Model. “
One of the scientists who discovered the Higgs boson says that their team has found a flaw in our current best framework for the basic laws of the universe, the Standard Model of particle physics. It turns out the W boson is heavier than predicted.
“When the physics world finally saw the result on April 7, 2022, we were all surprised. Physicists measure elementary particle masses in units of millions of electron volts – shortened to MeV. The W boson’s mass came out to be 80,433 MeV – 70 MeV higher than what the Standard Model predicts it should be. This may seem like a tiny excess, but the measurement is accurate to within 9 MeV. This is a deviation of nearly eight times the margin of error. When my colleagues and I saw the result, our reaction was a resounding ‘wow!’”
The Standard Model has an astonishing track record: it predicted the existence of the W boson and Higgs boson before they were experimentally verified. But unless there’s a flaw in the analysis, we will need to update our model of the universe. In the author’s view: “There are unexplained particles or forces causing the upward shift in the W boson’s mass. […] there must be more physics waiting to be discovered beyond the Standard Model. “
Friday Cocktail: Reset your brain with cognac, chess and a holy hand grenade
Sip: on a long, refreshing Roffignac
Weekend browsing:
Listen: to Where Did Our Love Go? sung by The Supremes on the streets of Paris: despite the lyrics, one of the happiest videos I know.
“Baby, baby don't leave me
Please don't leave me
All by myself.”
Have a great weekend.
Sip: on a long, refreshing Roffignac
Weekend browsing:
Listen: to Where Did Our Love Go? sung by The Supremes on the streets of Paris: despite the lyrics, one of the happiest videos I know.
“Baby, baby don't leave me
Please don't leave me
All by myself.”
Have a great weekend.
New ‘Death Shadow’ dinosaur found in Argentina
Up from the depths, three storeys high… and armed with wicked, 15-inch claws. A new Jurassic Park movie is out in June, but reality sounds like it has already outdone the special effects.
A gigantic megaraptor has been found in Argentina: Maip macrothorax. Maip apparently means an evil “death shadow” spirit of the Andes, from the mythology of the indigenous Patagonians. It sounds like an appropriate name…
Up from the depths, three storeys high… and armed with wicked, 15-inch claws. A new Jurassic Park movie is out in June, but reality sounds like it has already outdone the special effects.
A gigantic megaraptor has been found in Argentina: Maip macrothorax. Maip apparently means an evil “death shadow” spirit of the Andes, from the mythology of the indigenous Patagonians. It sounds like an appropriate name…
Just how bad for you is Twitter?
Is social media contributing to political dysfunction?Academics Jonathan Haidt and Chris Bail are conducting a collaborative review of the evidence, addressing seven questions including:
DOES SOCIAL MEDIA CREATE ECHO CHAMBERS?
DOES SOCIAL MEDIA DECREASE TRUST?
DOES SOCIAL MEDIA AMPLIFY POSTS THAT ARE MORE EMOTIONAL, INFLAMMATORY, OR FALSE?
Read the evolving Google Doc here.
Is social media contributing to political dysfunction?Academics Jonathan Haidt and Chris Bail are conducting a collaborative review of the evidence, addressing seven questions including:
DOES SOCIAL MEDIA CREATE ECHO CHAMBERS?
DOES SOCIAL MEDIA DECREASE TRUST?
DOES SOCIAL MEDIA AMPLIFY POSTS THAT ARE MORE EMOTIONAL, INFLAMMATORY, OR FALSE?
Read the evolving Google Doc here.
Things worth knowing
As Kevin Kelly, the founding exec editor of Wired magazine, turns 70, he shares 103 things he wishes he’d known earlier. It’s an enjoyable mix of the practical and the grand.
When buying a garden hose, an extension cord, or a ladder, get one substantially longer than you think you need. It’ll be the right size.
Don’t bother fighting the old; just build the new.
Your group can achieve great things way beyond your means simply by showing people that they are appreciated.
When someone tells you about the peak year of human history, the period of time when things were good before things went downhill, it will always be the years of when they were 10 years old — which is the peak of any human’s existence.
You are as big as the things that make you angry.
As Kevin Kelly, the founding exec editor of Wired magazine, turns 70, he shares 103 things he wishes he’d known earlier. It’s an enjoyable mix of the practical and the grand.
When buying a garden hose, an extension cord, or a ladder, get one substantially longer than you think you need. It’ll be the right size.
Don’t bother fighting the old; just build the new.
Your group can achieve great things way beyond your means simply by showing people that they are appreciated.
When someone tells you about the peak year of human history, the period of time when things were good before things went downhill, it will always be the years of when they were 10 years old — which is the peak of any human’s existence.
You are as big as the things that make you angry.
Friday Cocktail: Styrofoam, hobbits and… do you know when the world’s going to end?
Sip: on a Full Monte No.2
Weekend browsing:
Hobbits: still alive and living in Flores?
Philip Tetlock is looking for superforecasters… to help predict the end of world
It came from another world: amazing snaps of our space debris on Mars
Listen: to Ashley McBryde sing Styrofoam
“Thousands of usages, all kinds of stuff
And that includes forty-four ounce cups”
Sip: on a Full Monte No.2
Weekend browsing:
Hobbits: still alive and living in Flores?
Philip Tetlock is looking for superforecasters… to help predict the end of world
It came from another world: amazing snaps of our space debris on Mars
Listen: to Ashley McBryde sing Styrofoam
“Thousands of usages, all kinds of stuff
And that includes forty-four ounce cups”
Why Ukraine is winning
An interesting Twitter thread from Mark Hertling, a retired US Army officer, on why he called this war early for Ukraine, despite it being superficially outmatched by Russia’s outsize resources.
Short version: military coordination is hard, and battle requires strong units that know how to observe and improve their performance over time.
“Not-so-good units don't accept critiques, don't fix broken processes, repeatedly allow small issues to turn into big problems, and don't reflect on their own leadership failures.”
Worth reading. I hope he’s right. But don’t get cocky.
An interesting Twitter thread from Mark Hertling, a retired US Army officer, on why he called this war early for Ukraine, despite it being superficially outmatched by Russia’s outsize resources.
Short version: military coordination is hard, and battle requires strong units that know how to observe and improve their performance over time.
“Not-so-good units don't accept critiques, don't fix broken processes, repeatedly allow small issues to turn into big problems, and don't reflect on their own leadership failures.”
Worth reading. I hope he’s right. But don’t get cocky.
Getting real on carbon emissions
Eminent energy expert Vaclav Smil delivers quite the reality sandwich in his latest New York Times interview.
“We live in this world of exaggerated promises and delusional pop science. I’m trying to bring it onto some modest track of reality and common sense. The official goal in the U.S. is complete decarbonization of electricity generation by 2035. That’s Biden’s program: zero-carbon electricity in 2035. The country doesn’t have a national grid! How will you decarbonize and run the country by wind and solar without a national grid? And what will it take to build a national grid in a NIMBY society like the U.S.?“
…
“What we need is the dull, factually correct and accurate middle. Because only from that middle will come the solutions. Solutions never come from extremes. It’s also irresponsible to state the problem in ways where, when you look closer, it’s not like that. There are these billions of people who want to burn more fossil fuel. There is very little you can do about that. They will burn it unless you give them something different. But who will give them something different? You have to recognize the realities of the world, and the realities of the world tend to be unpleasant, discouraging and depressing.“
Smil is very smart – Bill Gates is a big fan – and he has a new book out on how the world really works. His older work Energy and Civilization: A History is very good too.
Eminent energy expert Vaclav Smil delivers quite the reality sandwich in his latest New York Times interview.
“We live in this world of exaggerated promises and delusional pop science. I’m trying to bring it onto some modest track of reality and common sense. The official goal in the U.S. is complete decarbonization of electricity generation by 2035. That’s Biden’s program: zero-carbon electricity in 2035. The country doesn’t have a national grid! How will you decarbonize and run the country by wind and solar without a national grid? And what will it take to build a national grid in a NIMBY society like the U.S.?“
…
“What we need is the dull, factually correct and accurate middle. Because only from that middle will come the solutions. Solutions never come from extremes. It’s also irresponsible to state the problem in ways where, when you look closer, it’s not like that. There are these billions of people who want to burn more fossil fuel. There is very little you can do about that. They will burn it unless you give them something different. But who will give them something different? You have to recognize the realities of the world, and the realities of the world tend to be unpleasant, discouraging and depressing.“
Smil is very smart – Bill Gates is a big fan – and he has a new book out on how the world really works. His older work Energy and Civilization: A History is very good too.
Dan Hannan on the limits of the West
An interesting counterpoint to my recent speech courtesy of Dan Hannan. The West is back, and its strength is evident. But its geographical limitations have also been made evident by war in Ukraine.
“The West, in short, turns out to be a small collection of rich nations grouped around the Anglosphere. Many of us had assumed that, after the fall of communism, our values would spread, as people recognized that open societies based on individual freedoms were happier as well as more successful. Boy, were we wrong.”
An interesting counterpoint to my recent speech courtesy of Dan Hannan. The West is back, and its strength is evident. But its geographical limitations have also been made evident by war in Ukraine.
“The West, in short, turns out to be a small collection of rich nations grouped around the Anglosphere. Many of us had assumed that, after the fall of communism, our values would spread, as people recognized that open societies based on individual freedoms were happier as well as more successful. Boy, were we wrong.”
Revitalising the West
A transcript of my speech at this weekend’s New Culture Forum conference is available to read at The Critic:
“Our greatest threat comes from those, without and within, who think that the West’s strangely divided nature is too weak to survive, or that its day is done. Those who dismiss the West always believe they are opening the door to something new, a better alternative. More stable, or more efficient, or more socially just. Or perhaps, even, more like the past. Instead, as it always turns out, they are letting back in what Kipling called the “old king”. Imperial despotism.”
A transcript of my speech at this weekend’s New Culture Forum conference is available to read at The Critic:
“Our greatest threat comes from those, without and within, who think that the West’s strangely divided nature is too weak to survive, or that its day is done. Those who dismiss the West always believe they are opening the door to something new, a better alternative. More stable, or more efficient, or more socially just. Or perhaps, even, more like the past. Instead, as it always turns out, they are letting back in what Kipling called the “old king”. Imperial despotism.”
Friday Cocktail: British space power, a royal birthday and Elon Musk’s toilet
Sip: on a Queen Elizabeth Cocktail. Happy 96th birthday, Ma’am (although this drink is named after the wife of a Philadelphia bartender).
Weekend browsing:
Post-Brexit liftoff: Britain prepares for its first space launches since the Seventies
Ignore his tweets from the toilet: Elon Musk is giving the world a brighter future
As China heads for decline, both demographic and economic, dangers mount
Listen to: Sarah McLachlan singing Rainbow Connection
“Some day we'll find it
The rainbow connection
The lovers, the dreamers, and me.“
Sip: on a Queen Elizabeth Cocktail. Happy 96th birthday, Ma’am (although this drink is named after the wife of a Philadelphia bartender).
Weekend browsing:
Post-Brexit liftoff: Britain prepares for its first space launches since the Seventies
Ignore his tweets from the toilet: Elon Musk is giving the world a brighter future
As China heads for decline, both demographic and economic, dangers mount
Listen to: Sarah McLachlan singing Rainbow Connection
“Some day we'll find it
The rainbow connection
The lovers, the dreamers, and me.“