An interesting Twitter thread from Mark Hertling, a retired US Army officer, on why he called this war early for Ukraine, despite it being superficially outmatched by Russia’s outsize resources.

Short version: military coordination is hard, and battle requires strong units that know how to observe and improve their performance over time.

“Not-so-good units don't accept critiques, don't fix broken processes, repeatedly allow small issues to turn into big problems, and don't reflect on their own leadership failures.”

Worth reading. I hope he’s right. But don’t get cocky.