A Fourth Revolution: will China win?
China is close to achieving a critical mass of skills, technology, and supply-chain depth that will leave the United States behind—just as the United States left Britain behind during the twentieth century.
That’s from a sobering essay by David Goldman, arguing that China has developed a significant lead in the core technologies of the fourth industrial revolution, primarily AI and 5G. And, Goldman argues, “Digital technology is a winner-take-all world“.
If China creates the dominant firms with AI/big data applications, trillions of dollars of wealth will migrate to China from the United States. The capacity of American firms to maintain high levels of R&D and preserve America’s technological edge will erode rapidly.
You can see where this is going…
The United States can still lead the Fourth Industrial Revolution. But we do not have a lot of time to lose. China is close to attaining a critical mass of talent, skills, technological capacity, and logistical depth with a population nearly five times that of the United States. At some point in the foreseeable future, the United States will not be able to catch up.
Goldman favours a smarter, old-style industrial policy to carry the day. Is that really a magic bullet? Food for thought, anyway.